Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
