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The gravest possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by experts, encompassing a scorching 4C jump in mean temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea levels. Another scenario foresees a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset food production and power requirements.

Possible Extremes, Not Predictions

These consequences, certain ones are linked to irreversible climate shifts, are viewed as improbable but credible. The researchers explained that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The climate extremes we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are possible," stated the professor who directed the analysis. "Britain has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to assess extreme possibilities. We've now given planners what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Severe Conditions Scenarios

A further series of dire projections maps the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These show that temperatures could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be three times normal levels.

The chance of the extreme scenarios coming to pass could not be calculated due to uncertainty about what steps will be enacted to address global heating and how the planet's climate will behave. This research was compared to security threat evaluations or scenario planning for economic stability.

Key Outcome Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts fails or if vicious cycles like the tropical forests dying release its huge repository of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heatwaves and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and becoming unstable due to global heating. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be drastically changed," said Arnell.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic collapse rapidly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this threat is already recognized by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be applied to guide the development of major projects, for example new towns, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these climate risks could also hasten the transition to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The research developed the severe projections using a mix of observed and historical experience, digital projections and established principles. These outcomes omit broader worldwide issues including the global food shortages and resource wars.

The project was requested as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have warned that too little consideration was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the risks for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "insufficient" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson commented: "Climate change is at the heart of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the effects."