A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
