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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Historic Victory Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For the opening hour, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea are frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling habit of snatching away victories after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he nodded in the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might feel a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the first goal had a significant element of luck. Currently, however, Lady Luck seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Run

Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in two of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula should not, yet pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will finally align with their performances or if their performances can rise to justify the results.

This should not be sustainable, but everybody's been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a feature of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• First, they possess a profound self-belief that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at changing games through his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins came on for Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement behind the defensive line caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, bolstering the midfield and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the substitutions; following them, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Maresca struggled to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than adapting on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish home has become a recurring leitmotif. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing brilliantly, but enough individuals within it delivering to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its midway point, they have to be considered as in the title race, arguably more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their title credentials.